Prices for cereals, dairy and meat ease, while sugar prices rise for a fourth consecutive month
©FAO/Lilliane Suwanrumpha
The benchmark measure of world food commodity prices edged lower in October, as weaker import demand contributed to month-on-month declines in the price indices for cereals, dairy products and meat, according to new data released today by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 133.9 points in October 2026, down 1.6 points (1.2 percent) from its revised September level, as lower price indices across most commodity groups more than offset a sharp rise in sugar and a marginal increase in vegetable oils. Despite the monthly decline, the index stood 5.9 percent above its level a year earlier but remained 16.4 percent below its March 2022 peak.
The FAO Cereal Price Index fell 4.5 percent from September. World wheat prices declined following four consecutive monthly increases, largely reflecting subdued international demand and an improving production outlook, particularly in Argentina. Expectations of easing constraints on Black Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline.
International maize quotations also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, weighed down by harvest-related pressure in the United States of America, expectations of ample supplies in major exporting countries in South America, and renewed prospects for an easing of tensions in the Black Sea region. By contrast, the FAO All Rice Price Index increased by 1.6 percent in October 2026, as harvest delays in some rice exporting countries added to the upward price pressure exerted by adverse weather conditions and rising costs.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased marginally, by 0.3 percent from September, as higher soybean and sunflower oil quotations more than offset lower rapeseed oil prices. Soybean oil quotations rose to their highest levels since late 2022, driven by continued firm demand from the biofuel sector and seasonally declining supplies from South America. Meanwhile, sunflower oil quotations rebounded from multi-month lows amid persistently tight export availabilities from the Black Sea region.
The FAO Meat Price Index fell 1.2 percent from September, while remaining slightly above its year-earlier level. Quotations declined for pig, ovine and bovine meats, while poultry meat prices remained broadly stable.
The FAO Dairy Price Index was down 1.1 percent from September, with the October decrease reflecting declines in international butter and cheese quotations amid ample supplies and subdued buying interest. The declines more than offset further increases in milk powder prices.
The FAO Sugar Price Index marked its fourth consecutive monthly increase to reach its highest level since December 2024 after rising 6.6 percent from September and 28.8 percent from a year ago. The rise was mainly driven by rainfall-related disruptions to sugarcane harvesting and crushing operations in Brazil’s key Centre-South producing region as well as concerns over production prospects in India, the European Union and Thailand in the 2026/27 season.
Global cereal production to remain high, trade to contract
World cereal production is forecast to retreat from its 2025 record in 2026, while remaining at its second-highest level on record (2 999 million tonnes), according to the new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, also released by FAO today.
Production is expected to decline across all major cereals, most markedly for wheat, while coarse grains are forecast to register only a marginal decrease. Rice production is set to contract for the first time in four seasons, falling by 2.5 percent to 552 million tonnes, largely reflecting poor producer margins and El Niño-related adverse weather conditions.
World cereal utilization in 2026/27 is forecast to increase marginally by 0.2 percent to 2 971 million tonnes from 2025/26. Food consumption accounts for most of the expected increase, with food use of both wheat and rice seen rising by 0.8 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. This is slightly below the pace of global population growth.
Global cereal stocks are forecast to rise by 17.2 million tonnes, or 1.8 percent, by the close of seasons in 2027, largely reflecting higher wheat inventories in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where export disruptions are contributing to an accumulation of supplies. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 32.4 percent, slightly above the previous season’s level.
World trade in cereals in 2026/27 is forecast to contract by 3.3 percent, to 507.7 million tonnes. A fall of 8.6 percent in wheat trade is the main driver, with shipments from all major exporters declining amid supply or logistical constraints.
For a more detailed analysis of global cereal markets, see the forthcoming issue of Food Outlook.
41 countries continue to require external food assistance
FAO also released the November 2026 edition of its triannual global report Crop Prospects and Food Situation, a forward-looking analysis of the food situation by geographic region, focusing on the cereal production outlook, market situation and food security conditions, with particular attention to Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs).
Aggregate cereal production among LIFDCs is forecast at approximately 126.5 million tonnes in 2026, about 2 percent above both the 2025 level and the five-year average. The increase largely reflects an anticipated strong production recovery in Asia, particularly in Near East Asia, while production among African LIFDCs is expected to remain near‑average.
The number of countries/territories estimated to require external assistance for food remains unchanged at 41, of which 31 are in Africa. Persisting conflicts and insecurity remain the primary drivers of the most severe levels of acute food insecurity, while weather shocks associated with the strong El Niño event are worsening conditions in several subregions. Looking ahead, El Niño-related impacts on production are expected to remain severe into 2027 in several subregions, likely aggravating acute food insecurity further.
AMIS Market Monitor
The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its latest monthly Market Monitor on Friday, noting that markets for AMIS commodities remain relatively well supplied, although weather and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.
With strengthening El Niño conditions set to increase weather risks as the 2026/27 season progresses, its latest feature article argues that the consequences of production shocks caused by extreme weather events, including droughts, heatwaves, floods and storms, depend on how trade and policies respond: open trade can help reduce vulnerability and redistribute supplies, while export restrictions can amplify disruptions.
Source:FAO
